Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
