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Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for the side's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

It remains a rather hard query to address. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.